When Billions is Pittance, Conclusion

In light of the list from the previous posting it is therefore clear that, measured against standards of probability, the challenge of possible habitable planets out of blind forces alone is far from simple.  To the contrary, the chances are impossibly remote.  Of the 128 factors Ross cited in The Creator and the Cosmos, not one was estimated to have a probability figure higher than 1 in 10.  Many were far lower. 

In calculating the estimated probability of existent habitable planets by mindless powers alone, the procedure is to first of all to assemble all the known required environmental factors together (which popular articles on the question consistently fail to do), and then multiply the probable chance occurrence of each and every factor against every other factor.  Since Ross’s figures were published in 2001, his detractors will surely be quick to boast that current estimates of the number of habitable planets has risen considerably since that time.  But bear in mind that such figures actually yield the impossibly high average of one habitable planet for every thirty five stars (17 billion such planets out of 400 billion stars in our galaxy).  On the basis of point “(4)” alone (listed in the previous posting), close to 90% of stars are eliminated from the pool right off the bat.  I therefore judge the figures proclaimed in recent articles to be absurdly exaggerated!  Interestingly, it should also be noted that, on the other side of the ledger, discoveries over very same passage of time has lengthened the list of stringent conditions (involving high orders of magnitude) that are required in order for planets to be habitable.

Dr. Ross, as of 2001, made the following calculations:

The possibility of the chance occurrence of all 128 factors which are required for a planet to be habitable:  1 in 10 to the minus 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,0000

and as the maximum possible total number of planets in the universe at:       

100,000,000,000,000,000,000,00

Factoring these figures together, astronomer and physicist Dr. Hugh Ross calculates that (apart from the creative will of the Creator) there is “less than 1 chance in a trillion, trillion, trillion, trillion, trillion, trillion, trillion, trillion, trillion, trillion, trillion, trillion, exists that even one such planet would occur anywhere in the universe”  (Creator and the Cosmos, p.198).

Wouldn’t you know it!  Just as I conclude my present series I encounter an up-dated list as of 2009 from Hugh Ross, tiled “RTB Design Compendium.”  Included is a much more extensive list of 402 required “quantifiable characteristics” for advanced life.  See http://www.reasons.org/links/hugh/research-notes.