In calculating the estimated probability of existent habitable
planets by mindless powers alone, the procedure is to first of all to assemble all
the known required environmental factors together (which popular articles on
the question consistently fail to do), and then multiply the probable chance
occurrence of each and every factor against every other factor. Since Ross’s figures were published in 2001, his
detractors will surely be quick to boast that current estimates of the number
of habitable planets has risen considerably since that time. But bear in mind that such figures actually yield
the impossibly high average of one habitable planet for every thirty five stars
(17 billion such planets out of 400 billion stars in our galaxy). On the basis of point “(4)” alone (listed in
the previous posting), close to 90% of stars are eliminated from the pool right
off the bat. I therefore judge the figures
proclaimed in recent articles to be absurdly exaggerated! Interestingly, it should also be noted that,
on the other side of the ledger, discoveries over very same passage of time has
lengthened the list of stringent conditions (involving high orders of
magnitude) that are required in order for planets to be habitable.
Dr. Ross, as of 2001, made the following calculations:
The possibility of the chance occurrence of all 128 factors which
are required for a planet to be habitable:
1 in 10 to the minus 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,0000
and as the maximum possible
total number of planets in the universe at:
100,000,000,000,000,000,000,00
Factoring these figures together, astronomer and physicist
Dr. Hugh Ross calculates that (apart from the creative will of the Creator)
there is “less than 1 chance in a
trillion, trillion, trillion, trillion, trillion, trillion, trillion, trillion,
trillion, trillion, trillion, trillion, exists that even one such planet would
occur anywhere in the universe” (Creator
and the Cosmos, p.198).
Wouldn’t you know it!
Just as I conclude my present series I encounter an up-dated list as of
2009 from Hugh Ross, tiled “RTB Design Compendium.” Included is a much more extensive list of 402
required “quantifiable characteristics” for advanced life. See http://www.reasons.org/links/hugh/research-notes.